How l/ong is Merz go/ing to last as Chancellor of Germany?

@sharkbok

I don't believe I am. And I'm not seeing a moralizing tone. I'm simply pointing out errors in you claims. Where am I cherry picking?

As for the small boats you aware that the number of small boat crossings into the UK decreased 47% this year? You might be... but I'd be very confident in saying you the majority of the UK population don't know that, because A Labour was shit at telling them and B most of the media in the UK won't tell them that.

You know I'm not making the argument that 85% of the UK population is far-right.

"It is simple. If European mainstream governments do not fix the immigration problem, they will be voted out."

It's not that simple. The left wing Social Democrat government of Denmark has enacted tough anti immigration policies since it came into power in 2019 and this year suffered it's worst election results in a century. Now most Danes do support tough immigration laws, but there is more to it than just immigration. Firstly the Social Democrats alienated some of it's traditional support base who felt it shifted too far to the right. You can argue that they moved to the right or to the centre on immigration... but that didn't enable to win over many right wing voters. When it comes to immigration there is a an element on the hard right of politics that you can never win over because you can never be extreme enough for them. But ultimately being tough on immigration didn't help the Social Democrats because fixing immigration as you see it doesn't fix the bigger problems of European country. The cost of living overtake immigration as the most important issue in Denmark. Great you get rid of all the asylum seekers and the money saved ends up being spent elsewhere by the government, but does that fix the cost of living. does it make those who feel left behind feel any less left behind?

For the UK, that means Farage. Had it not been for the illegal immigration problem, the UK would probably not have left the EU.

Immigration was one of many reasons... but far from the only one. There is several other factors that if you removed any of them individually it would likely have caused Brexit to fail. The small boats crisis really only kicked off in 2019 which Brexit ironically probably contributed too.

"It is empowering the far-right, or the grifters like Farage and Trump."

It is but aping the girfters doesn't fix anything.

If Farage or Rupert Lowe gets into power, or the AFD in Germany, they will fix the illegal immigration problem, but make everything else worse.

Heres' what will happen. They will get rid of asylum seekers and make everything else worse as you say and since getting rid or asylum seekers doesn't actually save much money or make a noticeable change to the number of people being perceived as foreign they will then they will move on to a new scape goat, regular non illegal immigration (which is why I asked are you based in Europe because the mobs could set upon you eventually). Then if they can get rid of normal immigration or massively reduce it and they start thanking the economy, they will move on to blaming native poor people for being lazy... welfare sponges,. people with mental health illnesses who they claim aren't sick at all just layabouts and rabbit endlessly on about culture wars and trans people.

'While most people supported refugees in the past, if the current numbers continue, the native populations of Europe will become the minority. I was pointing to birth rates that are far higher, well above replacement level, while the native population is below replacement level. We could argue about the numbers and use third-party sources; however, their birth rate is far higher.'

But you do realise that asylum seekers are a minority of immigrants. Maybe 12-15%. Do you think reducing that or stopping it all together is going change the demographic trends of Europe?

@Stavanger1

In most of the stronger EU countries the problems is not only immigration - it is the decline in the economy and standard of living of people or fear of people about the future. I think that the problem relates to two issues that is causing problems for Governing parties,

• In Germany the coalition between the more conservative CDU/CSU, the SPD and the Greens is resulting in an inability to take action to rectify the downward drift in the economy. It is impossible to expect from a combination of center right and far left parties to work together and come up with strong and effective action to save the economy from perceived decline. I will give you a typical example - within two months after the 2027 election Volkswagen fired 20 000 workers. It is that type of situation where people fear consequences and in a floundering and a recession for three years running the German economy fear of further economic decline is a factor in all sectors of the economy is driving voters away from the present governing parties.

• In Germany the younger generation of voters fear for the future when it comes to German culture and refuse to accept responsibility for the actions of their grandparents and even their great grandparents in and immediately after WW2. Their grandparents and even earlier generations cannot put blame on the present generations of voters by accepting that the Nazi era should drive the economy down. There is also a reaction in what the younger generation regards as an attack on German culture by the present voters.

• Making out that the AfD are Nazis does not count anymore and the present generation is against the "firewall" as it is an actual attack on democracy and a means to try and ensure the country is ruled by protecting the existing parties from being ousted from governing the country. In that regard it represent a situation where poor policy implementation prevails.

• Germany has an inadequate army who cannot protect themselves and the people do not want a war with Russia. Under those conditions a stronger alliance with especially the USA is needed - but is a bombastic person like Merz demolishing internal and external relationships is not needed. , , , ;